Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
