Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
